UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3c9713bffc70f58c6e7fbbd13cf53850192b2dbc214050d21dbd09c22368ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Yes | 68c | 4,500$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.25 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -7.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 31c | 2,501$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.26 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 32c | 1,995$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.28 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a22…7b00backed No | 39c | 1,283$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 61c | 1,057$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.24 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked No | 33c | 414.56$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…b4bebacked Yes | 75c | 364.48$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes | 80c | 267.64$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed Yes | 72c | 196.06$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 23c | 169$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 33c | 144.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 67c | 76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…3ed7backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed No | 39c | 63.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09f…be96backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Yes | 71c | 32.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Main Card)Abubakar Vagaev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.