Fifa International · resolved market
Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cdb48c1a8dcc45581f1a552da91d7b5831a620576a3157fe1cb2d33fb2b142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 29c | 1,010$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.73 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 71c | 688.65$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.71 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes | 70c | 500.66$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 29c | 350$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 179 | 62.6%112 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ec…1a4bbacked No | 31c | 50.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +12.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…ebeabacked Yes | 68c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…d5d0backed Yes | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Omar Marmoush: 2+ shotsthis page
- Emam Ashour: 1+ goalsYes won
- Emam Ashour: 2+ goalsNo won
- Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Emam Ashour: 5+ shotsNo won
- Mo Touré: 1+ goalsNo won
- Mo Touré: 2+ goalsNo won
- Mo Touré: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 1+ assistsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 1+ goalsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on targetYes won
- Mohamed Salah: 2+ assistsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 2+ goalsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 2+ shotsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 3+ goalsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 3+ shotsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 4+ shotsNo won
- Mohamed Salah: 5+ shotsNo won
- Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shotsYes won
- Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goalsNo won
- Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shotsYes won
- Nestory Irankunda: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nishan Velupillay: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Omar Marmoush: 1+ assistsNo won
- Omar Marmoush: 1+ goalsNo won
- Omar Marmoush: 2+ assistsNo won
- Omar Marmoush: 2+ goalsNo won
- Omar Marmoush: 3+ goalsNo won
- Omar Marmoush: 3+ shotsNo won
- Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Tete Yengi: 1+ goalsNo won
- Tete Yengi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Tete Yengi: 3+ goalsNo won
- Tete Yengi: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Trezeguet: 1+ goalsNo won
- Trezeguet: 2+ goalsNo won
- Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.