MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3e6d64f43df4c8beeca68b2b148d6ec5db3509d7b5e2b406eccb8891577cdce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 54c | 8,209$4,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,776.05 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 46c | 6,000$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 46c | 1,005$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.27 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 17c | 904.5$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 47c | 744.68$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…b244backed Under | 78c | 511.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 46c | 455$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 46c | 360$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 341.19$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 28c | 321.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 293.55$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 80c | 201.32$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 95.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 29c | 94.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Under | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 46c | 75.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 21c | 72.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.