MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fae12e2acb383c9c2d4d10d1226813ddc9b629bd01f6ca12b3b5cf2340096d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 5,397$2,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 3,697$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1a…9732backed Over | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 61c | 1,200$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.91 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 1,112$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 990.69$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.06 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 55c | 894.68$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.19 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 57c | 656.37$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.75 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 606.2$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 40c | 550.94$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.93 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 398.42$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.35 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 295.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 34c | 258.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.82 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 41c | 249.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 40c | 212.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 47c | 178.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 57c | 173.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 157.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Over | 52c | 114.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed Under | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 35c | 66.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 46c | 62.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Under | 54c | 59.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 42c | 47.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 32c | 47.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 45.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 54c | 41.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 37.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 33.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Under | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…f0e8backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 45c | 27.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 54c | 23.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 57c | 22.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Under | 60c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.