MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88151c68f065aae9751b9581ce29f01a94463f1d9f06de688582aebc5a28ce64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 8,624$5,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,001.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 35c | 6,510$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 34c | 1,966$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.28 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 27c | 1,288$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 5c | 790.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 74c | 765.96$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.07 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 66c | 743.21$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.69 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 27c | 460.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 74c | 422.13$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 31c | 413.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 32c | 295.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 65c | 203.37$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 8c | 173.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 72c | 105.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 73c | 104.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 21c | 97.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 36c | 96.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 96.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 66c | 72.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Over | 66c | 71.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…40cebacked Under | 36c | 68.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 34c | 66.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…f0e8backed Under | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Under | 27c | 63.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 30c | 58.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 66c | 53.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb62f…b2fabacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 30c | 36.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…0f4cbacked Over | 66c | 33.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 41c | 31.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…1d04backed Over | 66c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Over | 64c | 26.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Over | 65c | 26.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 73c | 25.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 65c | 23.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc306…5f02backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.