MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x720d31045c4dd050c62ce09ca9e86a84dec8a47acea598b378fbf58a3932fb02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Seattle Mariners, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 64c | 3,837$2,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.85 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 1,489$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 1,205$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 1,178$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.23 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed New York Mets | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed New York Mets | 64c | 380$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 261.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed New York Mets | 64c | 204.91$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f25…4f11backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 144.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 73c | 144.51$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 62c | 139.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…a382backed New York Mets | 64c | 132.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…ccd5backed New York Mets | 64c | 128.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 16c | 126.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Seattle Mariners | 8c | 119.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…08ebbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 77.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 47.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 61c | 44.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked New York Mets | 59c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.