MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe42236f6fcc7e2d0268244dd69fd9fc1452f6e91f75f1b222beffdc8e60186a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 3,541$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.71 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 1,748$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.74 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 1,500$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.21 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 896.94$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.16 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…e786backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 619.05$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 614.17$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 540.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 469$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.4 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 441$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.08 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 395.88$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.81 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 74c | 337.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 269.64$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.78 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 266$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.06 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 250$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 237$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 218.09$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 210.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 195$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c5afbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 147.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 133.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 115.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 113.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 91.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 89.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 78.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 78.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 75.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 65.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 60.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 946 | 55.3%523 W · 423 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 55.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 54.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 307 | 40.4%124 W · 183 L | -11.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 49.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 39.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…196bbacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 30.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 27.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 26.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 19.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.