Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe42b0de168515a5e18e626b3332282017708e19403633c1372624a52bb1e9270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 45c | 505.77$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 22c | 280.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 55c | 273.89$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 239.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 233.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 46c | 217.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 20c | 212.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 208.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 67c | 208.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.09 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 19c | 204.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 167.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 146.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 42c | 143.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 128.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 37c | 127.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 31c | 127.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 46c | 121$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 120.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 46c | 108.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 35c | 100.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 90.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 48c | 74.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 72.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 68c | 70.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 69.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 60.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 37c | 58.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 65c | 55.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 32c | 53.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 31c | 51.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 50.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 41c | 48.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 72c | 48.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 47c | 45.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a7dbbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 45c | 44.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…6737backed Yes | 40c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 68c | 43.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 35c | 43.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 33c | 42.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 33c | 42.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 38.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 65c | 36.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 36.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 43c | 33.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 44c | 33.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 32c | 32.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 33c | 31.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…6f0ebacked Yes | 74c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 37c | 27.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 38c | 27.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 67c | 27.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 25.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 52c | 24.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…0208backed No | 67c | 22.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 57c | 20.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…03afbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 19.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 62c | 16.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 71c | 16.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 63c | 16.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…6a83backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…5596backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed No | 72c | 14.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.