Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8bdb47474210cf7931bd6e9a8690269e939337a6b41964a078e7da53c8aa642
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb5b…4d82backed Yes | 33c | 1,414$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 401.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 367.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 8c | 322.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 68c | 316$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 287.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 19c | 258.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 62c | 193$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 29c | 158.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 34c | 147.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 147$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 144.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 22c | 137$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 129.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 128.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 123.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 32c | 123.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 121.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 114.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 21c | 113.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 65c | 112.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 41c | 102.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd715…88bcbacked Yes | 25c | 100.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 94.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 94.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 70c | 94.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 31c | 80.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 20c | 66.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 57.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 20c | 56.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 32c | 55.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 52.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 51.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 66c | 49.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 49.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 33c | 47.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…227bbacked Yes | 35c | 47.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 24c | 44.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 41.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 40.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 55c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…a9c5backed Yes | 32c | 32.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 32.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 75c | 30.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…ffc6backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 44c | 27.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 26.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 80c | 24.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 21.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 80c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 66c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dd14backed No | 68c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 70c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 79c | 13.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.