Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d0c66bf4ce03a8f000206e724c0dbfad1b1ee96e81c3050e15d73cce5efc138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked No | 76c | 966.66$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.82 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 820.04$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.51 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 12c | 349.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…3be0backed Yes | 18c | 348.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 281.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 278.28$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 276.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 261.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 261.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 14c | 179.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 9c | 170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 161.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 157.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 29c | 115$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 111.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 46c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 107.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 19c | 106.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 101.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 99.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…56ccbacked Yes | 19c | 98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 95.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 95.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 12c | 86.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 14c | 84.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 82.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 75.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 21c | 67.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 20c | 61.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 21c | 61.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed Yes | 31c | 60.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 25c | 56.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 52.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…c6a2backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 51c | 50.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…9747backed Yes | 26c | 49.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 26c | 47.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac6…9658backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 44.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 24c | 42.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 41.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 35c | 41.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 62c | 29.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 29.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 29.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 28.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 78c | 21.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.