Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe44034682b3dea4ad57787981c6fde6e8b19d25f2425b6ad38bec35a159f3b9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd472…a5b2backed Team Spirit | 73c | 9,437$6,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,579.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Team Spirit | 40c | 4,224$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.03 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…85e3backed ex-HEROIC | 25c | 4,149$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.3 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed ex-HEROIC | 30c | 2,965$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.38 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked ex-HEROIC | 35c | 1,672$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.26 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 1,566$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.6 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 1,542$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.91 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…f3b5backed ex-HEROIC | 26c | 1,372$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.64 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…c7c5backed Team Spirit | 75c | 1,365$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Team Spirit | 44c | 1,362$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.72 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked ex-HEROIC | 30c | 1,220$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Team Spirit | 63c | 942.51$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.01 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed ex-HEROIC | 29c | 514.08$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed Team Spirit | 70c | 480.51$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.15 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2c03backed ex-HEROIC | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…abfebacked Team Spirit | 66c | 436.18$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 392.72$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…fd05backed ex-HEROIC | 27c | 355.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed ex-HEROIC | 32c | 349.92$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…a4adbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 294.99$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed ex-HEROIC | 32c | 241.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed ex-HEROIC | 26c | 230$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked ex-HEROIC | 26c | 230$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1661…4b37backed Team Spirit | 80c | 229$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed ex-HEROIC | 29c | 200.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…3be7backed ex-HEROIC | 27c | 185.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045a…b9a4backed ex-HEROIC | 20c | 179$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed ex-HEROIC | 31c | 161.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…136bbacked Team Spirit | 59c | 160.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked ex-HEROIC | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Team Spirit | 69c | 110.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed ex-HEROIC | 19c | 81.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked ex-HEROIC | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed Team Spirit | 66c | 63.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed ex-HEROIC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked ex-HEROIC | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed ex-HEROIC | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Team Spirit | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Spirit | 75c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.