Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c549deb31d25aeb08d51b8ebf2f0ea07e078ace84cd3f37732f8582bc5fbeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed ex-HEROIC | 17c | 15,138$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561.91 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-HEROIC | 5c | 3,957$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.87 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked ex-HEROIC | 9c | 3,674$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.02 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed ex-HEROIC | 13c | 3,297$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.47 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed ex-HEROIC | 21c | 2,517$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.27 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8be…3d54backed ex-HEROIC | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked ex-HEROIC | 17c | 726.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Team Spirit | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…695dbacked ex-HEROIC | 15c | 568.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ex-HEROIC | 11c | 541.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Spirit | 79c | 528.29$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed ex-HEROIC | 14c | 520.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed ex-HEROIC | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…18fdbacked ex-HEROIC | 22c | 499.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +52%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Team Spirit | 78c | 381.71$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed ex-HEROIC | 18c | 349.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked ex-HEROIC | 11c | 321$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbe…b6d8backed ex-HEROIC | 10c | 320$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed ex-HEROIC | 17c | 291.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked ex-HEROIC | 14c | 279$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Team Spirit | 78c | 193.54$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed ex-HEROIC | 15c | 173.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed ex-HEROIC | 10c | 166$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed ex-HEROIC | 15c | 149.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Team Spirit | 80c | 135.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…3bc1backed ex-HEROIC | 17c | 122$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed ex-HEROIC | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed ex-HEROIC | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 95.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Team Spirit | 77c | 74.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Team Spirit | 80c | 74.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Team Spirit | 78c | 66.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Team Spirit | 78c | 12.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.