TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, ex-HEROIC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$218,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$281,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,186 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed ex-HEROIC24c8,345$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.671,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed ex-HEROIC25c7,064$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.0427153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…2065backed Team Spirit69c6,352$4,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Spirit69c5,709$3,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.7543344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked ex-HEROIC31c5,667$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74296645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed ex-HEROIC15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75018351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Team Spirit75c4,209$3,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.6722340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed ex-HEROIC25c3,833$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.0956955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked ex-HEROIC26c3,800$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98834544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked ex-HEROIC25c2,936$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.7450347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked ex-HEROIC41c2,804$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.0527143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked ex-HEROIC26c2,616$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.6913851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed ex-HEROIC25c2,568$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.2635151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed ex-HEROIC22c2,550$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed ex-HEROIC20c2,517$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.2277941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked ex-HEROIC30c2,075$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.791,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Team Spirit80c1,800$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.6737655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Spirit79c1,795$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.953764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Spirit71c1,750$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51079859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit70c1,667$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.191,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed ex-HEROIC17c1,383$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2488539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Spirit75c1,331$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.8349455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit70c1,319$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.981,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad4d…dd89backed ex-HEROIC18c1,205$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.757736.4%28 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Spirit69c1,081$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.2595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit71c1,053$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.691,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a9…3bb6backed ex-HEROIC39c1,026$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed ex-HEROIC26c1,023$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.915848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed ex-HEROIC27c1,006$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.6829348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Spirit73c1,001$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.3556548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Spirit80c978.13$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.6326846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit70c915.25$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.7689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked ex-HEROIC31c908$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.421144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked ex-HEROIC26c809.75$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2141,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed ex-HEROIC25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ex-HEROIC28c779.47$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.481,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Spirit60c720.85$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.761,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked ex-HEROIC25c706.39$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.61,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked ex-HEROIC18c687.78$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12326843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit74c662.08$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.92,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Team Spirit75c659.31$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3112740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Spirit73c631.31$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.81,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Spirit68c620.21$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.531,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked Team Spirit61c607.69$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.6919849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked ex-HEROIC26c607.1$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.861,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked ex-HEROIC22c550.26$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0610541%43 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked ex-HEROIC37c549.95$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3777256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Spirit52c540.32$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.4843067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed ex-HEROIC47c522.6$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6844645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed ex-HEROIC31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Team Spirit77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11510048%48 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed ex-HEROIC20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed ex-HEROIC15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7555751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Spirit62c483.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8750053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ex-HEROIC25c475.64$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.051,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed ex-HEROIC3c450$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed ex-HEROIC24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Team Spirit76c396.05$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0534667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Team Spirit71c386.14$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8616242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c9…e194backed ex-HEROIC27c374.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004035%14 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed ex-HEROIC17c361.29$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4210036%36 W · 64 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed ex-HEROIC23c318$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2441050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Spirit74c305.21$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2253139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Team Spirit77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6929466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed ex-HEROIC28c299.07$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4810751.4%55 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked ex-HEROIC27c283.73$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.679341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit61c277.91$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.842,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked ex-HEROIC10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2569033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Team Spirit74c249.99$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked ex-HEROIC26c242.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4137223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Spirit67c237.94$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5968649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked ex-HEROIC29c234.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0439550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked ex-HEROIC24c206.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed ex-HEROIC41c200$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8160251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked ex-HEROIC21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+51.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ex-HEROIC24c198$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1664547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed ex-HEROIC15c188$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.265337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Spirit68c187.69$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.981,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed ex-HEROIC36c168.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6054445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed ex-HEROIC14c164.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0751140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed ex-HEROIC17c159.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.173647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Team Spirit78c155$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.16842.6%29 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked ex-HEROIC35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.558250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked ex-HEROIC40c147.81$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Spirit73c144.33$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Team Spirit75c131.91$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.516346%29 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Team Spirit62c130.89$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4522961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed Team Spirit52c126.92$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9221062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked ex-HEROIC16c122.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0868345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit70c119.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.61,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed ex-HEROIC10c119.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9227636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Spirit74c110.63$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7650749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Spirit78c109.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.270236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Spirit69c106.22$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0645750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde19…0f32backed ex-HEROIC24c105.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked Team Spirit65c104.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5719352.3%101 W · 92 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed ex-HEROIC22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed Team Spirit76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415854.4%86 W · 72 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed ex-HEROIC15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.