NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4775b9c7b3046d83efc46862aabc7c8131e28705daf4b06ffef2edd177399d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 52c | 9,555$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,554.6 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…1552backed Under | 49c | 5,102$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 48c | 3,333$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.84 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 688.61$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.53 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 47c | 650$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 52c | 576.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.95 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 494.33$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.34 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…50d1backed Over | 53c | 462$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 444$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 328.92$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…5b6abacked Under | 48c | 265$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 52c | 206$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5b…8411backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd89c…bee3backed Under | 48c | 197$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 187.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Under | 47c | 76.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. PelicansGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.