NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa115a1f675d8d8d768b7cb546ab5025184b9c323740b87d2add380bc4831077a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Grizzlies | 53c | 18,934$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,933.82 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Pelicans | 45c | 11,983$5,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,392.48 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 47c | 6,317$2,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,942.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Grizzlies | 55c | 5,588$3,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 47c | 5,098$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…77e4backed Pelicans | 46c | 4,924$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…4576backed Grizzlies | 54c | 4,924$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…ded1backed Grizzlies | 55c | 4,545$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.45 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Pelicans | 46c | 3,556$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.71 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies | 55c | 2,898$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.2 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 46c | 2,130$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.22 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pelicans | 45c | 1,785$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.27 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Grizzlies | 53c | 1,517$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.58 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 47c | 1,506$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.67 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 53c | 1,231$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.46 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 47c | 945.6$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.29 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans | 47c | 856.33$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.83 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…860cbacked Pelicans | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e3ecbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 792.86$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.86 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pelicans | 47c | 699.4$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.72 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Grizzlies | 55c | 526$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.7 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 45c | 522$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Pelicans | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pelicans | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Pelicans | 47c | 178.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Grizzlies | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Grizzlies | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Pelicans | 49c | 104.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Pelicans | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 48c | 79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Pelicans | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Grizzlies | 46c | 47.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658a…3b89backed Pelicans | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Grizzlies | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Pelicans | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pelicans | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Pelicans | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Pelicans | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Pelicans | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Pelicans | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Pelicans | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Pelicans | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. PelicansGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.