NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89642badeae03925c23b013d164ca3d3dd3ed33518b807feafa388e366629ddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $409,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $410,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Grizzlies | 52c | 385,064$200,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185,063.82 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Pelicans | 48c | 150,000$72,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,000 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Pelicans | 48c | 75,962$36,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,461.54 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Pelicans | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,200 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,700 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 22,377$10,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,863.68 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans | 46c | 18,697$8,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,600.57 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 48c | 11,343$5,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,467.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 6,128$3,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,004.24 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd860…aa2cbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pelicans | 48c | 2,668$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.64 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 49c | 1,500$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.25 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Pelicans | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 48c | 1,159$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans | 46c | 1,076$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.96 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…23a9backed Pelicans | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Pelicans | 50c | 752$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Pelicans | 50c | 736.22$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.61 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Pelicans | 49c | 668.61$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.62 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Grizzlies | 51c | 627.45$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.45 | 309 | 45.3%140 W · 169 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Pelicans | 47c | 595.03$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.71 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Pelicans | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Pelicans | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Pelicans | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Pelicans | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 50c | 181.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Pelicans | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Pelicans | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Grizzlies | 49c | 87.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 47.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 34.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Grizzlies | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…dc2dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. PelicansGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.