NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf110e7bf79bee744377e5ffcd29c2dd963491a09aae8dc1adf82341de325c6cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 2,990$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Under | 52c | 2,451$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.74 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 51c | 1,885$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.67 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 51c | 1,814$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.38 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 1,232$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2e…f422backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…b388backed Under | 49c | 839.59$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 731.77$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 411.72$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.88 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 52c | 380$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 49c | 280.1$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 51c | 51.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Under | 48c | 43.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…b651backed Over | 69c | 40.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 303 | 48.2%146 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 37.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 51c | 27.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca6…0b8fbacked Under | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. PelicansGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.