NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562e35f1747e70e69af59b09baae3e695c3402fd83c744e6201ac016290ab6d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 46c | 1,285$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.34 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 713.8$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…498abacked Grizzlies | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 47c | 564.83$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…6b6cbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 564.81$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Grizzlies | 50c | 204.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 50c | 172$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…2370backed Grizzlies | 58c | 125.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…0076backed Grizzlies | 58c | 106.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Pelicans | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Pelicans | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Pelicans | 45c | 54.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 49c | 50.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Grizzlies | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca6…0b8fbacked Grizzlies | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. PelicansGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.