Tennis · resolved market
Palermo: Francesca Jones vs Darya Astakhova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe48ce80c7b26d65d5da2d4e1fee437a838e3737a628770f4189c645274f9bb22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Francesca Jonesof Francesca Jones, Darya Astakhova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Darya Astakhova | 21c | 16,324$3,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,449.11 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Darya Astakhova | 43c | 7,952$3,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,419.15 | 346 | 55.2%191 W · 155 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Francesca Jones | 75c | 4,990$3,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.47 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc779…8e4fbacked Francesca Jones | 79c | 4,468$3,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.91 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Francesca Jones | 58c | 3,911$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.89 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Francesca Jones | 70c | 1,959$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.32 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Darya Astakhova | 37c | 1,225$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.39 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Darya Astakhova | 20c | 1,068$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 2,997 | 57.3%1,717 W · 1,280 L | +170.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Darya Astakhova | 25c | 876.68$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.17 | 2,394 | 38.4%920 W · 1,474 L | +87.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Francesca Jones | 71c | 695.81$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.14 | 798 | 57.6%460 W · 338 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Francesca Jones | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…f871backed Francesca Jones | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Darya Astakhova | 11c | 460.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 2,025 | 46.9%950 W · 1,075 L | +21.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Darya Astakhova | 24c | 319.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 3,187 | 48.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L | -46.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Francesca Jones | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 176 | 59.1%104 W · 72 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Francesca Jones | 75c | 260.28$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 1,013 | 50.1%508 W · 505 L | +36.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…a041backed Darya Astakhova | 26c | 225.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Darya Astakhova | 30c | 192.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Francesca Jones | 75c | 166.16$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Francesca Jones | 74c | 140.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 896 | 59.6%534 W · 362 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Francesca Jones | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Francesca Jones | 65c | 128$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…904dbacked Francesca Jones | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Francesca Jones | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…17c5backed Darya Astakhova | 18c | 101.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Francesca Jones | 75c | 100.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 215 | 54%116 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Francesca Jones | 75c | 79.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Francesca Jones | 78c | 76.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 353 | 79.3%280 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Darya Astakhova | 27c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Francesca Jones | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Francesca Jones | 74c | 65.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 406 | 61.3%249 W · 157 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Darya Astakhova | 24c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 574 | 49.1%282 W · 292 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Francesca Jones | 69c | 56.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2,079 | 44.4%923 W · 1,156 L | -52.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Francesca Jones | 74c | 55.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Francesca Jones | 76c | 50.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 241 | 74.3%179 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Francesca Jones | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,016 | 57.7%586 W · 430 L | -14.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…52f4backed Francesca Jones | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Darya Astakhova | 31c | 45.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Francesca Jones | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…71c9backed Francesca Jones | 74c | 37.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 162 | 58.6%95 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Francesca Jones | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Francesca Jones | 76c | 31.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 587 | 57.8%339 W · 248 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Francesca Jones | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…9c52backed Francesca Jones | 76c | 29.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Francesca Jones | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Francesca Jones | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 127 | 67.7%86 W · 41 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Francesca Jones | 75c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Francesca Jones | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Francesca Jones | 76c | 26.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 204 | 70.6%144 W · 60 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Francesca Jones | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 113 | 72.6%82 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 77cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Francesca Jones | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Francesca Jones | 74c | 25.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…b45dbacked Francesca Jones | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 223 | 77.6%173 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Francesca Jones | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 231 | 62.8%145 W · 86 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Francesca Jones | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 587 | 50.4%296 W · 291 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Francesca Jones | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Francesca Jones | 76c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…9f01backed Francesca Jones | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.