MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe49bb19a6d1e98967d3e021f26cb6342cde38e3a20084aec73d44ea801c1a526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 4,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.99 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Houston Astros | 55c | 2,197$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.73 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Houston Astros | 56c | 1,398$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.91 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 1,276$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.61 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 1,202$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.41 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,000$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.69 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Seattle Mariners | 7c | 960.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.7 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Seattle Mariners | 10c | 850$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 687.55$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 634$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.42 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…96ecbacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 600$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 20c | 428.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Houston Astros | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…438cbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 321.43$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52da…c1f6backed Houston Astros | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 223.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 220$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Seattle Mariners | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…d1a7backed Houston Astros | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Seattle Mariners | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Houston Astros | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Houston Astros | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Houston Astros | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Houston Astros | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Houston Astros | 52c | 31.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…0800backed Houston Astros | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked Houston Astros | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.