MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a4aae57c5565d4922c90ae8648c7e02504a8dbf9a1fb5dc91fd481260f963e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 3,526$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 1,667$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.81 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 815$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.3 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 630.69$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 80c | 349.1$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 22c | 295$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 20c | 244$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 160.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 154.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 154.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Seattle Mariners | 13c | 121.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Seattle Mariners | 10c | 118.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 117.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 63.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 17.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.