MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0ddb37f18e7a86ed73d1d8a5f16537547a18d212a868618d9185bddfd73247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 47c | 70,620$33,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,428.6 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 53c | 67,000$35,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,509.98 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 7,765$4,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,075.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 3,128$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.28 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 2,071$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 1,894$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 52c | 1,544$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.06 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 49c | 1,300$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 1,103$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,074$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 51c | 972.71$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.08 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 750$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 53c | 442$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.26 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 57c | 318$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 270.19$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 64c | 200.46$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 47c | 197.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 53c | 170$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 44c | 129$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 47c | 89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 48c | 89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 47c | 82.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 40c | 75.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 54c | 74.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 67.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 61.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Under | 57c | 47.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Under | 46c | 42.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 53c | 36.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 48c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Under | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 49c | 29.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Over | 54c | 27.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 53c | 25.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 49c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.