MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a709906ee773da9241befd3423dbae4fc9d77e203d446b6db1c73fef58dd0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 48c | 11,259$5,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,409.56 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495d…68d8backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 8,755$4,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,114.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 3,191$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.95 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 3,045$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.02 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Athletics | 54c | 1,698$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.83 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 1,630$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.43 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Athletics | 55c | 1,352$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.6 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Athletics | 55c | 1,000$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.58 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Athletics | 51c | 801.81$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 764$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.84 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 56c | 568$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.17 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 56c | 515.93$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.08 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 5c | 495.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 457$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.98 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Athletics | 55c | 272.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af9…9931backed Athletics | 8c | 240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 57c | 221.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics | 13c | 205.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 155.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 133.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Athletics | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 20c | 85.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Athletics | 61c | 73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Athletics | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Athletics | 61c | 64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 55c | 53.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 51.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…89a7backed Athletics | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Athletics | 57c | 36.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 35.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.