MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d36786c1b21fe131e5441d75a43fb42e4d9507c7ec59fa1211e0c2d41415062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 52c | 19,043$9,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,140.75 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 13,083$6,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,274.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 48c | 10,433$5,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,008 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 51c | 6,223$3,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.39 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.12 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 5,638$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 3,237$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 2,848$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.22 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 46c | 1,535$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.93 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 51c | 1,032$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.96 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 1,024$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 975.28$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Over | 55c | 877.82$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.58 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 647.27$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 541.94$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 444.03$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.13 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 405.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.38 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked Over | 48c | 393.75$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 308.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 55c | 250.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 195.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 44c | 190$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 54c | 183.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 45c | 127.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 94.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 44c | 79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 29c | 77.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 54c | 72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 47c | 59.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 19c | 56.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Over | 47c | 54.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 65c | 53.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 49c | 52.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Under | 56c | 44.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 62cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9517…f0b3backed Over | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Under | 54c | 40.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 54c | 38.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 53c | 37.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…4d46backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Under | 54c | 33.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 78c | 31.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked Under | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 53c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 57c | 28.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 28.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…c217backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecde…04efbacked Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 69c | 20.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 77c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 73c | 13.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.