MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32653890c9d985d16183bbf58d2e4db534209151f7fec1f592e3bae874b8aaa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 43c | 9,341$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,341.2 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 6,885$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 6,577$4,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,341.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 43c | 4,780$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,727.95 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 4,487$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 4,445$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.19 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,327$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.63 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 42c | 1,082$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.72 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 57c | 764.91$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.93 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 460.66$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 38c | 444$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 41c | 296.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 278.65$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 39c | 210.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 199$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 196$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Under | 45c | 173.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 156.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 34c | 142.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 67c | 109.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…e41bbacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 27c | 90.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Over | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 77.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Under | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 44c | 71.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Over | 42c | 71.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 54c | 66.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 20c | 62.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 75c | 57.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 43c | 53.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 54c | 46.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Over | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 43.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 57c | 40.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 57c | 37.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Over | 40c | 32.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 37c | 31.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 68c | 30.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked Under | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Over | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 57c | 23.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 75c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.