TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$530,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$533,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,445 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Athletics45c200,000$90,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,999.8546949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Miami Marlins55c137,604$75,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,921.741,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins62c57,765$35,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,821.894,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Athletics45c30,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,50077053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics44c21,876$9,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,583.634,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Athletics9c21,360$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021.3782636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Miami Marlins53c21,292$11,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,951.8744851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins73c20,985$15,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.7811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Athletics39c19,123$7,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,457.9511548.7%56 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Miami Marlins61c18,903$11,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,372.1185645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics45c17,201$7,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7771,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins55c16,189$8,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,308.133,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Miami Marlins55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50033852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Athletics46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60048451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics26c9,394$2,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,418.088,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins63c9,030$5,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,385.232,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Miami Marlins55c6,988$3,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,156.541,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins55c6,653$3,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,993.726,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins55c6,278$3,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,854.535,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Athletics36c6,007$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.461,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Athletics21c5,190$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.9195045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf776…bd5cbacked Athletics21c4,612$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Miami Marlins56c4,545$2,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.87651.3%39 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6193…5b80backed Miami Marlins58c4,509$2,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.2623146.8%108 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Miami Marlins56c4,459$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,978.441,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics9c3,809$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.74,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Miami Marlins55c3,636$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.3649158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Athletics44c3,586$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.8477647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Athletics0c3,425$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1940629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b2c…f9f2backed Athletics1c2,600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Marlins55c2,518$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.261,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Miami Marlins54c2,407$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.4119250%96 W · 96 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…24e8backed Miami Marlins53c2,329$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.421346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics45c2,226$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.796,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Miami Marlins55c2,027$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.3120648.1%99 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Athletics19c2,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37037032.7%121 W · 249 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Miami Marlins55c1,634$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.3179255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics9c1,609$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.434,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins75c1,463$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.138,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics45c1,157$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.232,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429e…41bdbacked Miami Marlins55c1,120$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5041369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+58.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins55c1,108$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.262,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Miami Marlins55c1,098$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.161,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Miami Marlins55c1,091$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.916858.8%40 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Athletics2c1,024$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.491,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Athletics1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.517417.2%30 W · 144 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Athletics44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44029046.6%135 W · 155 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Miami Marlins55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45039846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins55c982.14$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.962,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Miami Marlins55c893.29$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.981,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Miami Marlins55c892.85$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.7897050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Miami Marlins56c890.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.9126245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Athletics45c889.99$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.631,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins54c814$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.442,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb81…1f15backed Athletics44c800$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35212448.4%60 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Miami Marlins55c739.74$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.8851547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Athletics36c736.37$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.095,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Athletics20c669.74$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.592046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ed…0a9fbacked Athletics47c636.64$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2210145.5%46 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics46c610$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.71,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe22a…cb75backed Miami Marlins55c542.26$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.3226948.7%131 W · 138 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Miami Marlins56c536.83$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.2156253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Miami Marlins55c535.8$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.111,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb92…b221backed Athletics46c535.66$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.2937944.3%168 W · 211 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins73c528.35$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.611,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…aa9dbacked Athletics2c500.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109424.5%23 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Athletics44c499.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics23c497.47$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b5…7e9abacked Athletics45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006946.4%32 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Miami Marlins49c431.04$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.8358060.5%351 W · 229 L+30.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf50f…0586backed Miami Marlins56c407$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.082871.4%20 W · 8 L+5.7wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+41.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics47c374.14$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.726,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Athletics23c362.02$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7212940.3%52 W · 77 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Athletics52c350$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-65.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6f2…3ef5backed Athletics41c342.59$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked Athletics46c340$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15539440.9%161 W · 233 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Athletics40c335.68$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.190446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Athletics45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15038353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics10c305.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.614,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Miami Marlins54c302.23$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7843459%256 W · 178 L+19.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Miami Marlins55c299.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13558652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Miami Marlins51c299.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.991,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307a…d612backed Miami Marlins51c299.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.991866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Miami Marlins55c290$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.595252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics51c283.44$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.273,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Athletics44c282$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0828943.3%125 W · 164 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Athletics46c280$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.51,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Athletics45c277.22$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7557548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Athletics27c275.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1634952.7%184 W · 165 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Athletics49c273.19$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa81…44a9backed Miami Marlins55c269.09$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.091060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Miami Marlins56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8624149%118 W · 123 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Miami Marlins55c262.07$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.931,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Miami Marlins71c262$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7234658.1%201 W · 145 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ff…e13ebacked Athletics17c242$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9412428.2%35 W · 89 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Miami Marlins56c241.07$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0781257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics46c238.89$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.533,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Athletics46c230$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.71,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Athletics46c230$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.71,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed Athletics45c227.36$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3124547.3%116 W · 129 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.