Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4d2e3d40a767a792417d4f1f6422e9af7b1c8f52b53347e7698925404abfcb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 53c | 999.97$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.98 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 769 | 53.4%411 W · 358 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 54c | 703.07$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.66 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 624.79$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.36 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Over | 47c | 618.23$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.81 | 261 | 55.9%146 W · 115 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…489fbacked Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 39c | 385.51$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 156 | 45.5%71 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Over | 61c | 288.67$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 780 | 50%390 W · 390 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 54c | 195.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…f3eabacked Over | 47c | 153.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Over | 46c | 127.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Over | 63c | 115.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 44c | 113.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 34c | 107.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 506 | 43.1%218 W · 288 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…d531backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…439cbacked Under | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 56c | 77.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Under | 34c | 75.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 140 | 38.6%54 W · 86 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…06d3backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 704 | 43.9%309 W · 395 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed Over | 62c | 51.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…1a19backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 380 | 34.7%132 W · 248 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 47c | 38.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 128 | 34.4%44 W · 84 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 44c | 38.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 53c | 33.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 641 | 46.5%298 W · 343 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Over | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 661 | 16.5%109 W · 552 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 56c | 25.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Under | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…f727backed Over | 69c | 15.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5)Invictus Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendJD Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerJD Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.