Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4d7b431616267ea409121baab30a9ee2bc1177738f50429e4f4a87902a147b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 70c | 688.3$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 73c | 609.16$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.71 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 18c | 521.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 408.27$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 10c | 268.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 53c | 204.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 50c | 203.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 36c | 186.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 24c | 167.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 20c | 163.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 133.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 10c | 124.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 9c | 121.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 14c | 114.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 51c | 99.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…12d5backed Yes | 62c | 99.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 98.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe30b…4252backed Yes | 65c | 92.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 36c | 79.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 43c | 73.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 59c | 73.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 14c | 72.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 23c | 67.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 16c | 66.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 24c | 64.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 46c | 63.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 61c | 61.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 47c | 60.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed Yes | 52c | 55.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 37c | 54.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked Yes | 52c | 48.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed Yes | 52c | 47.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked Yes | 52c | 47.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 29c | 45.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked No | 26c | 45.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…d33cbacked Yes | 52c | 44.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed Yes | 60c | 43.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 34c | 43.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 43.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 59c | 43.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…3c7dbacked Yes | 61c | 39.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 37.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…00afbacked Yes | 78c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 46c | 35.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…c555backed No | 72c | 32.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 62c | 30.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 62c | 30.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 34c | 29.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…733fbacked Yes | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…e6c1backed Yes | 73c | 28.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 28.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked No | 64c | 26.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked No | 51c | 26.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked No | 42c | 26.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 58c | 25.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed No | 47c | 25.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 48c | 24.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 46c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1998…6514backed Yes | 67c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…cc91backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1777…4e65backed Yes | 79c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…0b28backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 78c | 19.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb370…1e7fbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb712…71ffbacked Yes | 71c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 80c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…3fd3backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.