NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Texans: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5386006cd9b3e643141d08aa62d298e5e0e07e69488479ed79e122619cc092e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 50c | 30,200$15,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,104 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 21,587$10,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,809.36 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 5,216$2,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,597.65 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 4,355$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 50c | 1,332$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.82 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 1,000$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…a910backed Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 50c | 550$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Under | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Over | 50c | 400.02$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.01 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 370.46$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.64 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Over | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Over | 54c | 34.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 51c | 29.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Over | 50c | 22.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 38.5this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-6.5)Colts won
- Colts vs. TexansTexans won
- Colts vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 37.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 40.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 53.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-10.5)Colts won
- Spread: Texans (-11.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.