NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Texans: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe84c0e95678b875a09fb4ddedd69b1906baddd479ba93c021b58a832afb61edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 14,272$7,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,502.21 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 6,104$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,218.16 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 46c | 3,147$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 2,666$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.32 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 2,663$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.34 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 1,979$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.87 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 1,437$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.76 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 995.35$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.53 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 820.6$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.92 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Under | 53c | 564.96$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.07 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed Over | 46c | 374$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 55c | 300.66$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 48c | 252$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…642cbacked Over | 48c | 197$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…86a7backed Under | 53c | 197$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba7…d27abacked Over | 48c | 190$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…fa9fbacked Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 170$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 146.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 45c | 111.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 103.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 43c | 65.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 47c | 32.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Over | 48c | 28.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c27…b3c6backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86f…d2eebacked Under | 53c | 19.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 39.5this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-6.5)Colts won
- Colts vs. TexansTexans won
- Colts vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 37.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 40.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 53.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-10.5)Colts won
- Spread: Texans (-11.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.