NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Texans (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468692b7c304ee079137ebec7691087edfbc915db3d55d825b9bcd26241b0dec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Texans, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Texans | 54c | 24,041$12,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,982.41 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Colts | 46c | 18,049$8,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,746.31 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Texans | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Colts | 47c | 3,580$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.62 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Colts | 46c | 2,661$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.13 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Colts | 46c | 1,994$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Colts | 46c | 1,444$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Colts | 46c | 360.98$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.93 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Texans | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Texans | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Colts | 46c | 190$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Colts | 44c | 177.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Texans | 56c | 157.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Colts | 47c | 116.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Colts | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Texans | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Texans | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Colts | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Colts | 45c | 33.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Texans | 55c | 33.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Texans | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Texans (-6.5)this page
- Colts vs. TexansTexans won
- Colts vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 37.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 40.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 53.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-10.5)Colts won
- Spread: Texans (-11.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.