NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf24f142807b4c6a2dedc93c84f0d18310bd0ec5facbc2c393f6830161109e7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Texans, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texans | 43c | 3,019$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.27 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Colts | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Colts | 53c | 634.44$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.44 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Colts | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…3ab9backed Texans | 48c | 334.17$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Colts | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Texans | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…a714backed Colts | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Texans | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texans | 44c | 103.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Texans | 47c | 70.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Colts | 55c | 66.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Texans | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Texans | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Texans | 45c | 44.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed Colts | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Colts | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Texans | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Colts | 49c | 31.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Texans | 51c | 31.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…700fbacked Texans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-6.5)Colts won
- Colts vs. TexansTexans won
- Colts vs. Texans: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 37.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 40.5Over won
- Colts vs. Texans: O/U 53.5Over won
- Spread: Texans (-10.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.