MLB · resolved market
Padres vs. Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe53f0481e18538809d9a84d36a48e7ecb6aa773c39a2e0d528bcf5575a557bab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Padres, Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Padres | 47c | 6,440$3,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,390.59 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Padres | 47c | 4,013$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.76 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Padres | 58c | 3,858$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.21 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Pirates | 58c | 3,058$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.65 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Pirates | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pirates | 49c | 2,976$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.82 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Padres | 41c | 2,708$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.77 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Padres | 45c | 1,800$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.83 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Pirates | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Pirates | 53c | 1,435$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.32 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Padres | 57c | 1,413$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.5 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Padres | 49c | 1,334$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.36 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 49c | 1,315$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.27 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pirates | 48c | 1,234$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.52 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Padres | 50c | 1,200$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pirates | 52c | 1,026$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.44 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Padres | 48c | 1,017$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.26 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Pirates | 52c | 1,003$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.56 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Pirates | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Padres | 67c | 999.99$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Padres | 48c | 870$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.32 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Padres | 50c | 657.65$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.13 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pirates | 52c | 655.53$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.32 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Pirates | 40c | 558.66$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.95 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Padres | 48c | 518.14$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.68 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pirates | 51c | 498.66$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.58 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Padres | 44c | 408.17$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.41 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Pirates | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Padres | 47c | 350$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Padres | 33c | 327.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.27 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Padres | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Padres | 56c | 269.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pirates | 18c | 252.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Padres | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pirates | 51c | 205$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…49aabacked Padres | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Padres | 46c | 186.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Padres | 47c | 145$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Padres | 46c | 129.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Padres | 47c | 121.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Padres | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Padres | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Padres | 48c | 63.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pirates | 56c | 55.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed Padres | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Padres | 53c | 50.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Padres | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Pirates | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Pirates | 48c | 39.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Padres | 47c | 34.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62b…de3cbacked Pirates | 37c | 32.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Pirates | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Padres | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…1eedbacked Padres | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Padres | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Padres | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Pirates | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.