Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5453f51eeabf43d5c2b432bd0538de6e6955a51b0e239a8552789685ee7ffa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 492.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 407.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 75c | 213.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 10c | 210.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 204.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 177.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 16c | 171.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 19c | 149.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 148.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 21c | 141.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…6674backed Yes | 18c | 121.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 13c | 114.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c6d5backed Yes | 23c | 113.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 15c | 105.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 97.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 78.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 21c | 77.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 22c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 21c | 70.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 68.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 61.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 56.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 55.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 53.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 53.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked Yes | 23c | 51.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 47c | 31.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 32c | 31.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 26.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 75c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.