Music · resolved market
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe56260c352e2cacb087bb287d5fb8ed0f138f0fe5607875af5f7bd52e4fabc90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked Yes | 15c | 26,359$3,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,902.64 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 944.63$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed Yes | 15c | 646.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Yes | 14c | 580.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +213.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…e040backed Yes | 13c | 338.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 20c | 267.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…e1c1backed Yes | 9c | 223.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 10c | 205.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 192.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 164.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked Yes | 7c | 146.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 142.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…a487backed Yes | 13c | 141.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd8…fd86backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x621f…7293backed Yes | 13c | 122.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 114.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…513cbacked Yes | 13c | 112.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…485cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Armenia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Azerbaijan come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Cyprus come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Estonia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Latvia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Lithuania come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Norway come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Serbia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Switzerland come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine come in last place at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.