TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,351 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9db…6789backed Under1c4,336$43 inLost-$43.3626762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over54c305.51$165 inWon+$140.2911,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under47c269.8$126 inLost-$125.831,01350.3%510 W · 503 L+51.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over51c244.78$126 inWon+$118.794,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5257…75d3backed Under49c219.78$108 inLost-$107.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Over47c60$28 inWon+$31.841236.7%151 W · 261 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under53c60$32 inLost-$31.810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under41c30.73$13 inLost-$12.61,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d10…b3d0backed Under44c25$11 inLost-$115046%23 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.