TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,947 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks65c6,689$4,339 inWon+$2,349.6110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed St. Louis Cardinals35c6,625$2,319 inLost-$2,318.826762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals27c4,704$1,270 inLost-$1,270.144,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks58c2,069$1,197 inWon+$871.654,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals27c1,805$491 inLost-$490.796,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals43c1,710$735 inLost-$735.38,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks64c228.1$145 inWon+$82.7611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed St. Louis Cardinals35c200$70 inLost-$7043954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals37c100$37 inLost-$372,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked St. Louis Cardinals27c90.99$25 inLost-$24.5740447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals39c77.12$30 inLost-$30.065,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed St. Louis Cardinals37c62.15$23 inLost-$231,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked St. Louis Cardinals46c58.95$27 inLost-$27.129246.7%43 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals45c56.31$25 inLost-$25.342,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4f…b174backed St. Louis Cardinals47c29.66$14 inLost-$13.9440753.3%217 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed St. Louis Cardinals46c25.17$12 inLost-$11.682,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3146…d153backed Arizona Diamondbacks73c19.86$14 inWon+$5.3617749.7%88 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0daf…17a9backed Arizona Diamondbacks73c13.7$10 inWon+$3.714559.3%86 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.