MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cda577127016dedf2084989c0a522539de2bfe76596305deb285c4ef9c32b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 35c | 2,407$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.82 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 1,957$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 44c | 1,322$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.11 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 1,240$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.32 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 19c | 1,053$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.89 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 49c | 1,045$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.05 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 70c | 956.93$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.7 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 889.81$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 66c | 475.3$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 59c | 402.71$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 360$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 346.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.12 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 66c | 247.38$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 50c | 199.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 195.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 66c | 159.82$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 56c | 101$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…b8e1backed Under | 27c | 96.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 65.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 55c | 64.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 22c | 63.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 49c | 61.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 49c | 56.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 57c | 47.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 29c | 41.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 33c | 40.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Under | 55c | 32.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 35c | 31.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 24.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.