MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9082eb8f35553b9d7c2611eead1e3841c481dcff2c2a53356457a6134dd4199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 1,890$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.02 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 1,580$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 1,282$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.64 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 1,245$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.75 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 1,076$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.81 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 724.36$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.58 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 549.49$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 518.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.24 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 229.73$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.61 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 224.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 21c | 196.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.53 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 17c | 86.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 83.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 74.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 20c | 71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 64.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 62.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 46.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 43.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 40.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 39.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 31.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 27.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 21.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 18.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 14.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.