NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5950d2f711436cb0e4e1b204ee051b3861891f72998f3df61ceba5d1ac5b88d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Wizards | 51c | 3,000$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Thunder | 47c | 2,400$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.81 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 48c | 1,317$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Thunder | 44c | 566.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.36 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 39c | 468.53$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Wizards | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 39c | 215.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Wizards | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c1…3ac2backed Wizards | 54c | 172.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Wizards | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…06d8backed Wizards | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards | 55c | 80.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…1ae2backed Wizards | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e7…ed30backed Wizards | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…1263backed Wizards | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…8512backed Wizards | 61c | 37.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Wizards | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Wizards | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…627bbacked Wizards | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…87dabacked Wizards | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…38febacked Wizards | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…ae51backed Wizards | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…7347backed Wizards | 61c | 26.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…7c0ebacked Wizards | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…9103backed Wizards | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…a309backed Wizards | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9713…3185backed Wizards | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…19e5backed Wizards | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…61d5backed Wizards | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Wizards vs. ThunderThunder won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.