TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,113 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c57…c94dbacked Thunder50c39,476$19,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,632.265151%26 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards50c28,569$14,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,284.351,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Wizards50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0009650%48 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Thunder50c17,234$8,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,655.0771052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Thunder50c9,042$4,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5214035%14 W · 26 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-28.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards49c5,654$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.489,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Wizards50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Wizards49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4507748.1%37 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…d341backed Thunder48c4,357$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,252.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Thunder50c2,001$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.7830053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bff…6f0cbacked Wizards50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002540%10 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards63c1,127$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.378,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942c…fb3abacked Thunder50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005653.6%30 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x087a…a510backed Thunder50c850$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4252458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74e6…a857backed Wizards50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ac8fbacked Wizards52c752$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d9d…7149backed Wizards52c736$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e16…991abacked Wizards52c724$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02ac…e6c9backed Wizards52c684$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1122…0f70backed Wizards52c617$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Thunder50c599.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9130351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder49c430.48$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.551,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ea…7691backed Wizards52c364$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88d8…4b55backed Wizards52c357$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked Thunder49c334.18$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.485151%26 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Thunder45c325$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.8238151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c67…63fcbacked Thunder50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10013359.4%79 W · 54 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Wizards51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Wizards51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Thunder51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0824055.4%133 W · 107 L+0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Wizards51c195.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025336.8%93 W · 160 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Thunder54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1910149.5%50 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd57…a167backed Wizards50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Thunder50c130$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6515759.9%94 W · 63 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bd7…8124backed Wizards52c123$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Wizards50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561e…3e87backed Thunder53c92.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6711440.4%46 W · 68 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf57…053bbacked Wizards51c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.91225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Wizards46c82.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0147144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder32c57.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Wizards68c57.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3912542.4%53 W · 72 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…581bbacked Thunder50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259165.9%60 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed Wizards50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257243.1%31 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Wizards49c49.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.022,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Thunder51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.025358.5%31 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dd6…19e8backed Wizards51c47.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd4…5d74backed Wizards51c43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.82742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f1…a3fbbacked Wizards51c41.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+38.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Wizards51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Wizards51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2048451.2%248 W · 236 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0f…7037backed Wizards53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed Wizards53c35.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.947052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabd1…844cbacked Wizards53c31.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.951241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Thunder50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1517350.9%88 W · 85 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Thunder51c29.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.573240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe115…4641backed Wizards51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8022…e1d7backed Wizards51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79eb…618cbacked Wizards51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Wizards50c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.527359%161 W · 112 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5387…b792backed Wizards52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2278…8270backed Wizards52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf231…6b8dbacked Wizards52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4891…6c5bbacked Wizards52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5470…f84ebacked Wizards53c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157746.8%36 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Wizards50c28.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.132,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5096…6634backed Wizards52c26.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…a766backed Wizards51c26.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a0f…74adbacked Wizards52c25.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.471030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac7…03efbacked Wizards51c25.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137455.4%41 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c4…b0dcbacked Wizards53c25.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07b…17cebacked Wizards53c23.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.232157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb305…3cd3backed Wizards51c21.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf46a…3598backed Wizards53c21.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24040%16 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7375…e733backed Wizards51c20.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed1…fca4backed Wizards53c20.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.891533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f55…e528backed Wizards51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdba…3dedbacked Thunder50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37ff…5311backed Wizards53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe565…01a4backed Wizards51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22020%4 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-62.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe834…6407backed Thunder50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc538…484abacked Thunder50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.