NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x419fef0bbc691ed02443898aab7ceb18fbcfcaabc5e9517c11dab9d5dfa3344d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Under | 44c | 27,852$12,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,254.69 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 17,813$9,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,914.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 45c | 11,055$4,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,940.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Over | 56c | 7,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Over | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 56c | 3,376$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.44 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed Under | 65c | 600$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 56c | 338.66$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 57c | 269$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Over | 35c | 248.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.27 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 55c | 197.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 36c | 171$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Over | 56c | 142.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 89 | 70.8%63 W · 26 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f5f1backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…bdd4backed Over | 58c | 86.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 43c | 73.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…4216backed Over | 56c | 26.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Wizards vs. ThunderThunder won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.