Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe59efd978644ce2e20182e4f2cacfd3f90626f548e702d41f3893bf2d4a9d13b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6909…3539backed Yes | 1c | 1,235$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 12c | 456.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 23c | 351.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…df8dbacked Yes | 22c | 344.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 264.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 13c | 234.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 14c | 209.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 78c | 195.28$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 578 | 27.9%161 W · 417 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 187.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 23c | 175.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 166.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 149.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 29c | 118.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 113.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 23c | 113.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…bdeabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 11c | 99.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 25c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed Yes | 16c | 82.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 30c | 77.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 23c | 77.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 408 | 45.8%187 W · 221 L | +30.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 38c | 76.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 17c | 76.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…e136backed Yes | 38c | 70.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…b785backed Yes | 33c | 60.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…6b23backed Yes | 22c | 58.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 30c | 57.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 55.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 20c | 52.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 33c | 52.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes | 58c | 52.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 43.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 384 | 42.4%163 W · 221 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 68c | 39.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 37.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…a89ebacked No | 74c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.