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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,746 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x759d…cc80backed No25c1,074$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7378151.9%405 W · 376 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes56c720.32$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.72,29917.8%409 W · 1,890 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No37c587.35$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.291,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No57c451.61$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.2250846.1%234 W · 274 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c418.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.981,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No7c383.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3414332.2%46 W · 97 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No29c308.75$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.261,01451.6%523 W · 491 L+108.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c269.46$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3412,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No56c265.46$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0426061.5%160 W · 100 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No17c236.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.663,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes75c218.56$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.721,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No11c216$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.865,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc66c…7c32backed No20c177.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.484564.4%29 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x515c…3e91backed No60c167.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf361…783abacked Yes72c150.1$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.038863.6%56 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes49c141.42$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.698513.8%136 W · 849 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes34c137.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.894535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x581e…bdeabacked Yes61c135.32$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes67c134.2$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5914432.6%47 W · 97 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes37c121.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7717436.2%63 W · 111 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No44c120.79$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4940147.6%191 W · 210 L+24.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes53c118.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5612,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes58c117.62$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.65,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c117.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.936,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7ec…3a46backed No17c113.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No30c113.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.14,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9980…a036backed No71c112.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes38c109.65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.751,18938.2%454 W · 735 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed No28c108.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013947.5%66 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes48c107.29$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8138131%118 W · 263 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No27c105.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5930041%123 W · 177 L+26.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d60…d955backed No28c103.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2713224.2%32 W · 100 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9629…ee15backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf6…c7f5backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No14c90.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.772,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes72c89$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.071,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked No55c88.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.44936.7%18 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c87.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.969,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes55c86.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8866521.8%145 W · 520 L-27.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes70c86.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.916,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No73c84.91$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3322160.6%134 W · 87 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes47c81.91$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.142,24049.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L-9.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes52c80.66$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9111462.3%71 W · 43 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed No63c79.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.586651.5%34 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1c…545abacked No64c78.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.117656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+36.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No40c75.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023248.3%112 W · 120 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes59c74.78$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7637148.5%180 W · 191 L+25.0wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c71.01$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.514,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No54c69.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7524158.5%141 W · 100 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes65c68.22$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.215273.1%38 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No34c66.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7940142.4%170 W · 231 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes51c65.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0147047.2%222 W · 248 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No37c65.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c65.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.94,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No65c64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4488660.7%538 W · 348 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes76c63.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.487758.4%45 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72da…a89ebacked Yes46c63.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed Yes55c63.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.817262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No56c62.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.125,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes74c62.35$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2948446.1%223 W · 261 L+45.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes38c61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3855942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes39c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.451,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3311134.2%38 W · 73 L+0.5wins0.00per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a11…e55dbacked Yes73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes52c55.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5220851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes69c55.58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.992,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No73c55.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.969758.4%407 W · 290 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c52.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.957,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x55ca…498fbacked Yes36c51.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.074257.1%24 W · 18 L+9.3wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+51.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5414262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No34c49.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0613852.2%72 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No50c48.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.857143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes40c47.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.545630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ee…edcbbacked Yes47c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.981729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes44c42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7127565.5%180 W · 95 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes37c40.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5420255.4%112 W · 90 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.733,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes38c39.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.872233.4%241 W · 481 L+32.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c39.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes78c38.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.561656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes51c37.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.596842.6%29 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed No59c37.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1724568.2%167 W · 78 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+15%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No34c36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2516436%59 W · 105 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No47c35.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes69c34.96$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.752454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc52…795bbacked Yes33c34.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.262128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No34c34.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.582,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No55c33.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.232,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No38c33.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.761,15857.1%661 W · 497 L-45.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes39c32.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7419336.3%70 W · 123 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x868b…f600backed Yes32c31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes51c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2215066%99 W · 51 L+18.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51,06535.1%374 W · 691 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe412…4356backed No65c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.497631.6%24 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x278b…b63abacked Yes41c29.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.842560%15 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes70c29.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9423066.5%153 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes36c29.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4410730.8%33 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked Yes75c27.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9716166.5%107 W · 54 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked No56c27.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3457827.9%161 W · 417 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.