Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2503de8fbb6ac50fe5a27c2bd19ee48d6d5da7f6b6b298f0ddecfedf84f36b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,816$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.59 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 42c | 1,075$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 217 | 36.4%79 W · 138 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 58c | 921.54$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.05 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 74c | 585.04$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 475.08$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.11 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 362 | 18.8%68 W · 294 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 398.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 390.42$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 350$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 191.53$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 185$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 168.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 160.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 36c | 156.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 65c | 150.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 148$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 71c | 127.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 106.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 103.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 97.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 71c | 94.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 35c | 73.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 68.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 66c | 67.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 77c | 67.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 38c | 65.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 63c | 55.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 27c | 54.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 44.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 27c | 43.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 571 | 43.4%248 W · 323 L | -32.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 41.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 35.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 68c | 35.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 37c | 34.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 37c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 40c | 28.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 28.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 277 | 50.2%139 W · 138 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 15.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.