NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5a7b0d368c21ef81c0bf7f167094063d84b37ac6eb5c59d2042468fe7b49e23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Bears | 52c | 4,833$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lions | 50c | 4,300$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.3 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 50c | 3,571$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.59 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Lions | 48c | 2,191$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.97 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Lions | 49c | 1,806$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.06 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Bears | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Lions | 49c | 639.8$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.3 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions | 48c | 463.97$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.26 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Lions | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Lions | 51c | 295$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Bears | 51c | 201.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Bears | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Lions | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Bears | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bears | 49c | 101$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Bears | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked Lions | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed Lions | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears | 49c | 70.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lions | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Lions | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lions | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Lions | 50c | 50.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Bears | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Bears | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Bears | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Bears | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)this page
- Bears vs. LionsLions won
- Bears vs. Lions: O/U 45.5Over won
- Bears vs. Lions: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bears vs. Lions: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bears vs. Lions: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-5.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.