TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bears vs. Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lionsof Bears, Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$558,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$568,311

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $558,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Lions76c80,000$61,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,799.9911755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Bears31c48,034$15,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,070.0619551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda27…06bcbacked Bears28c40,477$11,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,346.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Lions72c34,155$24,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,563.347554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bears29c30,511$8,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,868.6130743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bears12c29,479$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,493.130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Bears28c26,000$7,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,28019553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bears29c25,512$7,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,319.6222450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lions72c23,499$16,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,675.4747738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Bears29c20,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,799.993036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Bears21c19,874$4,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,166.424436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lions72c17,339$12,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,854.7831848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Lions71c16,269$11,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,71810639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Bears28c15,222$4,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,262.1717454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Lions72c13,833$10,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.9624551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bears28c12,352$3,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,424.1760049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Lions73c11,746$8,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,188.7812843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Bears27c11,461$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.4716545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Bears28c10,651$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,932.8512144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Lions73c10,252$7,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,767.943259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Bears27c9,000$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4481118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Lions71c7,224$5,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.9227339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Bears8c6,102$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.26245.2%28 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Bears27c5,556$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005330.2%16 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Lions72c5,272$3,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.9422548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5741…8fe3backed Bears29c5,024$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Bears28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4007035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bears27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35014342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bears29c5,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Bears31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.9916036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears27c4,710$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.7841851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd0…7b4fbacked Bears8c4,688$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3754323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Bears23c4,307$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.948946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Bears28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1205851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bears27c3,888$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.1783447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…8561backed Bears16c3,786$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Lions72c3,600$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00828447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked Lions74c3,098$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.341346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lions63c3,044$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.9550242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf70c…72c1backed Bears19c3,041$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.554415.9%7 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-46.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Lions74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7806544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Lions73c3,000$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8205766.7%38 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Lions72c3,000$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Bears26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.991769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lions71c2,856$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.2624054.6%131 W · 109 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lions67c2,644$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.5731854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Lions80c2,600$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52928151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Lions69c2,428$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.6630446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Lions40c2,226$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.085719.3%11 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed Bears27c2,200$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5941936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Lions73c2,149$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.238648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Lions73c2,020$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.414445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Bears28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9916832.1%54 W · 114 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions72c1,966$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.381,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Bears13c1,788$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.962433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Lions73c1,771$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.0819361.7%119 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a2…916bbacked Bears29c1,724$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…114dbacked Lions72c1,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-51.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lions71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.9919543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a25…2a5fbacked Lions70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.571747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-28.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bears26c1,400$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Bears27c1,394$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.025837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bears27c1,376$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.657440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e38…ec7bbacked Lions73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.86683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bears15c1,340$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Lions71c1,236$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.1114248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lions67c1,090$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.753348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0a…9a0dbacked Bears30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Lions73c999.67$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.912035%7 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc352…51e3backed Bears27c959.26$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bears28c954.02$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.2444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Bears27c920$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.46752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Lions73c810.97$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.971850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Bears27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007938%30 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Bears2c697.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.424311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Lions73c684.03$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.692846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Bears26c600$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15627633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Lions73c578$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.0612954.3%70 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb3…4091backed Bears29c551.72$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604856.3%27 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+30.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lions72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14012250%61 W · 61 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Bears28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14041540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Bears32c491.53$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2910629.2%31 W · 75 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Bears31c483.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked Lions72c433$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.241723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Lions72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.672951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4662…b73abacked Lions74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.411050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Bears29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11613935.3%49 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Bears28c397.63$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3414351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Bears27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003650%18 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Bears28c350$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9812240.2%49 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Lions73c342.01$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.347755.8%43 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Bears22c337.41$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.333417.6%6 W · 28 L-6.5wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Bears15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503225%8 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Lions9c312.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.251013%3 W · 98 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x670d…0825backed Bears16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507037.1%26 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f5…a1d8backed Bears29c294.86$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.515442.6%23 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98b4…5d76backed Lions74c290$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.825453.9%137 W · 117 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7816…ce35backed Lions71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.697963.3%50 W · 29 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x08e0…bfdfbacked Lions72c280.63$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.635054%27 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Lions71c280$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8129059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.