Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5bdd7e3f4453e709cc9f99ab43905b9d16d3348ff01624bb3e165376870374a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof PARIVISION, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Aurora | 60c | 1,529$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.45 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed PARIVISION | 40c | 1,229$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.38 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Aurora | 63c | 308.64$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked PARIVISION | 40c | 298.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed PARIVISION | 40c | 240.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…c2c6backed PARIVISION | 36c | 186.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked PARIVISION | 40c | 94.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aurora | 61c | 86.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Aurora | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Aurora | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 61c | 58.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed PARIVISION | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Aurora | 61c | 22.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.