Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ffcc500bd9cd6fd7d7a933fdfb216e32c02e125ed351bb8637f64d2bb447f43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, PARIVISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora | 49c | 8,291$4,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190.3 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…6802backed PARIVISION | 52c | 5,264$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.88 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked PARIVISION | 25c | 3,483$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.6 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION | 60c | 3,429$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.54 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked PARIVISION | 34c | 3,228$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.3 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION | 29c | 3,038$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.55 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Aurora | 69c | 2,578$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.43 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 49c | 2,465$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.88 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 64c | 2,098$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.5 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Aurora | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed PARIVISION | 7c | 1,945$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.72 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked PARIVISION | 52c | 1,904$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.2 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Aurora | 64c | 1,080$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.6 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked PARIVISION | 53c | 920.82$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.83 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Aurora | 49c | 799.85$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.92 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…5cb1backed Aurora | 47c | 784.95$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked PARIVISION | 33c | 765.93$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.85 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c1…8174backed Aurora | 47c | 601.1$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.71 | 249 | 47.8%119 W · 130 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…3ba6backed PARIVISION | 25c | 584.18$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Aurora | 46c | 441.2$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.25 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed PARIVISION | 7c | 386.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Aurora | 48c | 361.28$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Aurora | 46c | 354.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.68 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 72c | 353.05$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked PARIVISION | 33c | 292.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 65c | 263.39$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Aurora | 54c | 222.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora | 69c | 214.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 66c | 208.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b5…205abacked Aurora | 48c | 203.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.14 | 319 | 53.9%172 W · 147 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Aurora | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed PARIVISION | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…c0d1backed PARIVISION | 62c | 191.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed PARIVISION | 52c | 186.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed PARIVISION | 52c | 182.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed PARIVISION | 55c | 176.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 153.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…2a0dbacked PARIVISION | 31c | 152.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Aurora | 77c | 152.16$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Aurora | 61c | 145.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Aurora | 37c | 135$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 72c | 123.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c9…6b8bbacked PARIVISION | 43c | 120.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed PARIVISION | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Aurora | 37c | 99.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora | 55c | 97.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed PARIVISION | 63c | 95.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked PARIVISION | 55c | 93.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed PARIVISION | 18c | 93.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…f9b3backed PARIVISION | 33c | 89.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Aurora | 67c | 85.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed PARIVISION | 53c | 82.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked PARIVISION | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Aurora | 54c | 75.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Aurora | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Aurora | 70c | 69.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Aurora | 65c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Aurora | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Aurora | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked PARIVISION | 19c | 57.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Aurora | 54c | 56.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…9179backed PARIVISION | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Aurora | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Aurora | 69c | 42.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed PARIVISION | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 378 | 51.1%193 W · 185 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed PARIVISION | 53c | 36.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Aurora | 63c | 36.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +15.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed PARIVISION | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Aurora | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Aurora | 78c | 34.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…bbdebacked Aurora | 46c | 33.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Aurora | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Aurora | 77c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.