Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c25a6e374d6f903f220f03e03a93bcef3701c6ee3e6fefc0d0fa492603b456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- West Ham United FCof Arsenal FC, West Ham United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC | 17c | 5,332$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.26 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Arsenal FC | 6c | 3,323$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.68 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Arsenal FC | 17c | 2,076$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 252 | 25%63 W · 189 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Arsenal FC | 17c | 1,290$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.31 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…9b1abacked Arsenal FC | 16c | 868.19$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…adbebacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Arsenal FC | 7c | 756$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Arsenal FC | 17c | 470.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Arsenal FC | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Arsenal FC | 12c | 260.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 132.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…496abacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Arsenal FC | 17c | 113.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…cb82backed Arsenal FC | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Arsenal FC | 16c | 75.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)West Ham United FC won
- Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
- West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.